Your Election Night Cheat Sheet

Want to know if the Democrats or the Republicans have the edge in winning control of the House and Senate?

Here is our cheat sheet for key toss-up races to track Tuesday night.

Remember: Republicans need to win a much higher percentage of competitive House races than Democrats do because so many G.O.P. seats are toss-ups.

So any one Republican victory is a modest sign of a good night for Republicans, while any given Democratic victory is a solid or strong sign of a good night for Democrats.

Barr, the incumbent, won by 22 points in 2016

If Barr wins, it’s a MODEST sign of a Republican night

If McGrath wins, it’s a STRONG sign of a Democratic night

Polls close at 6 p.m. Could take a few hours before a clear result.


Brat, the incumbent, won by 15 points in 2016.

If Brat wins, it’s a MODEST sign of a Republican night.

If Spanberger wins, it’s a STRONG sign of a Democratic night.

Polls close at 7 p.m. Could be a relatively quick vote count.


Taylor, the incumbent, won by 23 points in 2016.

If Taylor wins, it’s a MODEST sign of a Republican night.

If Luria wins, it’s a STRONG sign of a Democratic night.

Polls close at 7 p.m. Could be a few hours before a clear result.


Neither is an incumbent.

If Spano wins, it’s a MODEST sign of a Republican night.

If Carlson wins, it’s a STRONG sign of a Democratic night.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Should be a relatively quick vote count.


Curbelo, the incumbent, won by 12 points in 2016.

If Curbelo wins, it’s a MODEST sign of a Republican night.

If Mucarsel-Powell wins, it’s a SOLID sign of a Democratic night.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Could be a few hours before a clear result.

MacArthur, the incumbent, won by 20 points in 2016.

If MacArthur wins, it’s a MODEST sign of a Republican night.

If Kim wins, it’s a SOLID sign of a Democratic night.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Could be a couple hours before a clear result.


This district has been redrawn but is very similar to the seat Mr. Fitzpatrick holds.

If Fitzpatrick wins, it’s a MODEST sign of a Republican night.

If Wallace wins, it’s a SOLID sign of a Democratic night.

Polls close at 8 p.m. Could be several hours before a clear result.

Indiana

Missouri

Florida

New Jersey

Montana

Tennessee

Texas

Arizona

Nevada