Where Is the New York Mayor’s Race Headed?

“If we don’t watch out, we’re going to get a mayor almost chosen by random chance,” he continued, adding the caveat that over the next two months, awareness of the race may increase significantly.

“The information flow about the campaign has been a trickle, because other issues have crowded things out,” he said. “As information flow increases, interest will go up and information will go up.”

Ms. Wiley, who arguably stands to benefit the most from Mr. Stringer’s embattlement, faces an uphill climb. Just 36 percent of likely voters said they were familiar with who she was, according to a Spectrum News NY1/Ipsos NYC poll conducted this month.

For Dianne Morales, an anti-poverty organizer and nonprofit executive who is also angling for the left lane in the primary, the barriers to name recognition are even higher: She was known by only 25 percent of likely voters, according to the NY1 poll.

Asked in that poll what their major political concerns were for the next mayor to address, voters were most likely to say stopping the spread of Covid-19, reopening businesses and confronting crime. Upward of one in three likely voters named each of those. Addressing affordable housing, racial injustice and homelessness were cited less often.

If Mr. Stringer’s star fades, it could provide an opening not only for other progressive candidates but also for some of Mr. Yang’s well-funded moderate rivals, like Mr. Adams and Shaun Donovan, a former New York housing commissioner and member of President Barack Obama’s cabinet.

But as our Metro reporter Michael Wilson wrote in an article this week, the prevailing feeling for many voters right now is a lack of interest — maybe induced by exhaustion. There has been plenty of negative news coming from Albany since Gov. Andrew Cuomo was repeatedly accused of sexual misconduct in recent months. And there will be little love lost for Mr. de Blasio, the departing New York mayor, who has rarely enjoyed a positive approval rating throughout his eight-year term.