Ms. Nixon has trailed Mr. Cuomo by a double-digit margin in every public poll and almost every demographic since announcing her candidacy in March, and the newest Siena poll was no exception. Support for Mr. Cuomo, 60, was especially strong among black and Latino voters, as well as with voters over 55-years-old and voters in New York City, where the bulk of the state’s registered Democrats live.
Ms. Nixon’s campaign has been heavily outspent by Mr. Cuomo, and has been banking on the long-shot appeal of insurgents this year, citing the victories of candidates like Alexandria Osasio-Cortez, who beat a longtime incumbent, Representative Joseph Crowley, in a Democratic primary in June. In that case, Mr. Crowley was widely favored in polls.
“Again and again, we’ve seen polls miss the mark this election cycle,” said Lauren Hitt, a spokeswoman for Ms. Nixon’s campaign. She added, “They are missing the new electorate — people of all ages and races who have traditionally sat out the primaries, but are now energized to fight for radical change.”
“They will show up and make themselves heard,” Ms. Hitt said.
In the race for lieutenant governor, Mr. Cuomo’s running mate, the incumbent Kathy Hochul, also held a comfortable lead, 43 percent to 21 percent, over Jumaane Williams, the New York City councilman who is aligned with Ms. Nixon.
If elected attorney general, Mr. Maloney, the representative, would be the first openly gay statewide official. Ms. James would be the first African-American woman to hold such a position, as would Ms. Eve. And Ms. Teachout, who is pregnant and due in October, would be the first new mother to be attorney general; Barbara Underwood, who took over the department earlier this year after the resignation of Eric T. Schneiderman in the wake of allegations he physically abused romantic partners, is the first woman to be attorney general. She has one grown child.